Are Arsenal Out Of The Title Race?

Mikel Arteta’s team currently sits in fourth with 18 points, 9 points off the leaders Liverpool after just 11 games. In such a tightly fought league, can Arsenal afford to be this far off the top already? After 11 games last season, they sat on 24 points in joint fourth with Liverpool, being just 3 points off the leaders Man City who went on to beat them to the title in the final gameweek by 2 points. In their opening 11 Premier League fixtures last season they had won 7, lost 1 and drawn 3. Compared to this season’s 5 wins, 2 losses and 4 draws, Arsenal are already showing signs of drop-off. Has this been an issue long-time coming? Or, is this simply an easy fix for Arteta?

In recent seasons, it has proved that dropping points in easy win games doesn’t bode well, particularly for Arsenal, who for the past 2 seasons have missed out on the title by dropping points in ostensibly easy games.  In the 2022/23 season, by gameweek 34, Arsenal were one point behind City but then went on to lose to City themselves, Brighton in gameweek 36 and Nottingham Forest in 37; the second two being games that, on paper, they should have won. Many have cited that the reason for their drop-off links to player exhaustion. A recent study by the CIES Football Observatory - a research group at the International Centre for Sports Studies - on schedules and player workload suggested most clubs are not playing more matches per season compared to season's gone by. However, Arsenal have been dealt some fairly serious injury blows in recent weeks with captain, Declan Rice, being sidelined due to a broken toe. Bukayo Saka, Arsenal's key playmaker, has also had to miss two games after picking up an injury playing for England in the last international break.

It isn’t just Arsenal who are suffering from a drop-off though, Man City, Arsenal’s main rival for the title, have suffered two consecutive 2-1 losses to Bournemouth and Brighton, games that Man City should be winning. Similarly to Arsenal’s situation, City have also recently been dealt a blow concerning the season-long injury of Rodri, the club’s superstar holding-midfielder who has recently won the Ballon D’or. Some pundits are already suggesting, not even half-way into the season, that the points required to win this season’s Premier League title will be considerably less than previous years. 

Arsenal still have time though, and what they need most of all, is a break, which is handy considering that the international break is nearly upon us. England will be facing Greece and the Republic of Ireland in the upcoming round of the UEFA Nations League. For Arsenal’s sake, they’ll be hoping for their players to gain some much needed respite to help their season kick-on right through to Christmas and the new year. They’ll need a good run of form in the following months to make up for their poor start to the season. If they continue to lose, or even draw games that they should be winning, it will almost definitely cost them the title.