Farage's Barrage

Say what you will about Nigel Farage except that he’s politically irrelevant because he has just given Labour and the Tories the metaphorically equivalent sucker punch of Mike Amesbury’s physical blow on a fellow constituent last October. Forget Vegas or, should I say, Riyadh (sounds wrong), Runcorn seems to be the new fighting capital of the world. How does the saying go again? One sucker punch led to another…

Anyhow, Reform UK pulled off a remarkable political fightback on the first day of May with few historical equivalents, in the UK at least. They took control of ten local councils, two of the new Metro Mayor positions, one in Greater Lincolnshire and one in Hull and East Yorkshire, and the much anticipated Runcorn and Helsby constituency following the Mike Amesbury incident, which was Labour’s 16th safest seat. In terms of the overall vote share accounting for all of the local elections, Reform UK took home by far the largest share of the vote at 30%, then the Conservatives at 23%, followed by the Liberal Democrats at 17% and then Labour on a meagre 14%. The BBC issued a projected national vote share if a general election was held based on the local election results and this is what is said:

Which would translate to:

This wasn’t just a small political rebellion, it was more than that: a shared discontent from the masses that said: “We’re fed up with what the main two parties have been doing. We want change!”. 

So what did the Prime Minister have to say? He said: "We must deliver that change even more quickly. We must go even further." His supposition is that Labour aren't doing enough nor doing it with enough vigour. So what's to come then? Even higher taxes, even more houses built by the government, even more 'green energy' projects?

Well by my calculations, that would simply guarantee his ousting in 2029.

As for the Conservative Party, things look just as tenuous, particularly for Kemi Badenoch's position at the helm. Her party lost 676 councillors, one less than the total number of councillors that Reform gained. In an article in The Telegraph, Badenoch said, "Farage might be winning by-elections with protest in the air – but, set against Labour and Reform, the Conservative Party looks like an oasis of calm." An "oasis of calm". Hmmm - doesn't look or seem like it to me. It seems like a crisis, and a devilishly concerning one if I was a paying Tory member.

Both Labour and the Tories had historically dreadful times yesterday. It's quite clear that what Reform has tapped into is something that hasn't been seen in quite some time. This isn't the same as the SDP in the 1980s - it seems like more than that. There seems to be a seriously large contingent of people up and down the country who are done with the old two party system that has led them down the garden path. But it's only now that they're discovering the giant wasp's nest (unfulfilled promises), the huge patch of weeds (local and national profligacy) and the overgrown shrubbery (uncaring MPs).

The one thing now going through Mr. Farage's mind will be: "If only a few more MPs biffed their local publicans on the schnoz then we could be the main party in Parliament without the need of a general election".